GAMEDAY: NCAA Tournament Round 2 - (9) Utah

After the bad omen I gave you in my last post (# 4), want a good omen for Maryland's chances tonight?

Look at tonight's opponent. Now, remember the last time the Terps faced them.

Feeling better yet?

Yep, it was the Elite Eight in the 2006 NCAA tournament down in Albuquerque. A stomach virus had just struck the Maryland locker room and they had just been dragged to overtime by a gritty, underdog Utah team that had battled back from double digit margins in their first two tournament games, barely escaped a Cinderella Boston College team in the Sweet 16, and then erased a 9 point deficit to the Terps with 10 and a half to go to nearly win it in regulation before Shona Thorburn couldn't hit both free throws to give the Utes the lead with 7.8 seconds to play.

But what's the saying again? Oh yeah, "overtime is our time."

The Terps dominated OT, with Laura Harper scoring the first four points and then closing out the extra period on an 8-0 run to win 75-65 and advance to their first Final Four since 1989. Kristi Toliver, despite being struck with the flu the night before, scored a game-high 28 to lead the Terps. It's this program's version of the "Flu Game" as the Toliver/Michael Jordan parallels continue. It was a much less memorable (in terms of individual performance) night for Marissa Coleman, as she had just 4 points on 1/10 shooting, but she did grab 11 rebounds (Editor's Note: Isn't it amazing how Coleman always, ALWAYS seems to find a way to contribute in other ways when she's not scoring? Even as a freshman she did this. Absolutely incredible.) All in all, it was a gutty team effort from a special group of players that would go on to win the program's first and only National Championship a week later in Boston.

Now the year is 2009. Utah is the opponent not in the final 8 but in the final 32. And this time it's not in Albuquerque, it's in College Park, on Maryland's home floor.

The Utes, however, may be just as formidable as they were in 06.

They were 27-7 that year and a # 5 seed in the NCAA tournament. This year, they're 23-9 and a 9 seed. So on paper, they look a little bit worse. However, they are once again Mountain West conference champions, they are once again coached by Elaine Elliott, and they are coming off perhaps their best game of the season in which they posted one of the best defensive efforts in women's college basketball this season.

Everyone, myself included, predicted the Villanova/Utah first round game to end in the 40's or 50's. I had the Wildcats winning that game due to their superstar, Laura Kurz, and the mindset that Harry Perretta would outcoach Elliott. Whoops. Kurz had just 11 and went 0-for-7 from three point range. The Wildcats as a team shot 11-for-58, or 19 percent, on the game and were just 4-for-29 from three point range (14 percent.) The 30 points they scored was the third-lowest in the history of the tournament and the lowest by a non-16 seed in the history of the tournament. Utah literally doubled them up and had almost as many points at halftime, 26, as their opponents would score in the entire game.

That's a pretty good defensive effort.

With all due respect to Kurz, a Naismith Trophy finalist, and the Wildcats, the Terps present a much bigger challenge defensively for the Utes. The Terps have not one but two superstars in Coleman and Toliver and an excellent supporting cast in Lynetta Kizer, Dee Liles, Marah Strickland, and everyone else. They average 79.8 points per game, or 50 more than Villanova put up on Sunday. Slowing them down will be difficult. Beating them will be even tougher.

But definitely not impossible.

After the job that the 6'0 Kalee Whipple did on Kurz, it would not be a shock to see Elliott match her up on Coleman and see if she can frustrate her in the same manner. With the way Coleman can be careless with the basketball (103 turnovers on the season, or 3.12 a game), she'll have to be extra careful or Whipple and her 69 steals (or 2.16 per game) could take advantage. Oh and Whipple can get it done on the offensive end as well, averaging 16.8 points per game with a game-high 15 against Villanova on Sunday, dishing out 99 assists on the season, and grabbing 6.2 rebounds per contest.

She's pretty good, but Morgan Warburton is just as good, and might be even better.

Warburton, the preseason Mountain West Player of the Year, two time all-conference player, and 1,000 point scorer (20th in Utah's history), has only led her team in points (18.6 per game), assists (112 on the year), and is third in rebounds (6.3 per game) this season. She had 14 against the Wildcats, so her and Whipple nearly outscored their opponents all by themselves. These two are clearly the leaders of the Utah band. Both can light it up from three, shooting above 37% from the year, and as we all know, the three point shot can be the great equalizer in college hoops, especially women's. But in this game, the Utes probably won't be looking to outbomb the Terps from three; they'll be looking to hang with them, as Maryland is the top three point shooting team in the country, thanks mostly to Toliver, Coleman, and Strickland.

Warburton's a 5'11 guard, so she could be the perfect match for Toliver, but the thinking here is that Brenda Frese might stick the bigger (6'0) Marah Strickland on her and allow Toliver to focus more on dominating on the offensive end like she did on Sunday and like she did four years ago as a freshman in the Elite Eight against the Utes. Regardless of who's checking who on each side of the ball, the winner of the Toliver-Warbuton "game within the game" should go a long way in to determining tonight's outcome. Same, perhaps, with Coleman-Whipple.

There are two other big keys to tonight. The first one is literally a "big" key. Utah's two other standout players are Katie King and Halie Sawyer. King is the Utes' third double-figures scorer, averaging 11.1 per game, while Sawyer averages 7.3 a night. However, their impact is mostly felt on the boards. Each grabs more than 7 rebounds per game, with King averaging 7.1 rebounds and Sawyer 7.8. The disadvantage for them is their height, or lackthereof, as both are 6'1. That's a problem going up against the 6'4 Lynetta Kizer and the 6'1 Dee Liles (who averages 8.5 rebounds.) Combine those two with Coleman's toughness and rebounding prowess and I have to give the physical and interior edge to the Terps, which is something Elliott knows cannot be the case tonight, as she said after the loss in the regional finals four years ago that size made the difference. Granted, the Terps had Crystal Langhorne and Laura Harper back then and as good as Kizer and Liles are, they haven't ascended to the heights those two did. Bottom line: whoever controls the paint and dominates on the glass will have a huge shot at winning tonight.

The last key for tonight is tempo. This one is basic but obvious. The Terps score almost 80 points a game. Utah only allows 55 points per game. If it's a slogging, slow contest, that should keep the Utes in it and give them a chance to pull off the upset. They probably don't have the athleticism or the firepower to win a shootout. Elliott knows this and she's a good enough coach to get her team to not cave to the Terps. That's not to say that Frese will just let her team play a half court game, but it's easier to slow down tempo than it is to speed it up and the Terps are probably more comfortable in a half court game than the Utes are in a track meet. I look for Maryland to play slow if that's what Utah wants to do, wear them down inside, let Coleman and Toliver do their thing, and push the pace whenever they get the chance (off missed shots or when Utah falls asleep after a made basket.) I think this game should be close for a while before Maryland pulls away in the second half.

I'm going to be in attendance tonight for the last game at the Comcast Center for Coleman and Toliver. It should be a great one.

PREDICTION - Maryland 70, Utah 58

GAMEDAY: NCAA Tournament Round 1 - (16) Dartmouth

It's finally here.

After two full weeks of waiting, it's time for the Maryland Terrapins to get back in action because the NCAA tournament is here.

In case you had forgotten, the last time we saw the Terps, they were only winning one of the most amazing ACC tournament championship games in the history of the conference. The 92-89 overtime triumph over Duke was the perfect cherry on top of an absolutely spectacular and amazing regular season that culminated in a classic "double" (to use the European football term): the ACC regular season and tournament championships, each for the first time in two decades.

But now it's time to put the eyes on the biggest of all prizes. It's time to win six more games and give that 2006 national championship banner some company.

Everyone is saying that UConn is unstoppable. Unbeatable. Untouchable. But that's what they said about the 18-0 Patriots. That's what they said about 1991 UNLV. That's what they said about 1992 Mike Tyson. Is it a longshot that the Terps, or anyone, for that matter, defeats UConn? Yes. Is it impossible? No. And, for what it's worth, are the Terps the most equipped team in the 64-team field to take down the Huskies? Probably. You could argue for Oklahoma, but most people, pundits and fans alike, have recognized that the Terps are the second best team in women's college basketball right now and that they have the best combo of players to take down the juggernauts from Storrs.

Before all of that though, there's a little team from Hanover, New Hampshire to deal with today.

I'm not going to go so far as to say that Dartmouth is a team to be feared. They're not, at least not on paper for this Maryland team with Toliver, Coleman, and everyone else. But there are indeed reasons for the Terps to be wary of what they walk in to tomorrow. First of all, there's last year's near disaster against 16 seed Coppin State in round 1 fresh in the minds of the Terps. They were only up 45-41 with just over 17 minutes to go and were battled for about 30 minutes before pulling away to win 80-66. Almost everyone on the roster was here for that slopfest and even if, say, Lynetta Kizer and Dee Liles don't know about this personally, they can be sure that the rest of the locker room will be bringing it up and painting them a pretty nice picture of what it was like so that they can prevent it from happening again.

Second of all, the Big Green aren't too bad for a 16 seed. They're 18-10 overall, blowing through the Ivy League with an impressive 13-1 mark. They took Michigan State to overtime back in late November at a tournament in Vermont and they went to Fayetteville, Ark. and took the Arkansas Lady Razorbacks to the wire before succumbing in the final minute, 66-57. That trip to Bud Walton Arena should prep them well for playing in a gigantic college arena that's more like a WNBA home court, such as the Comcast Center.

But more than all of that, they have tournament experience. A lot of it. This will be their seventh NCAA tournament appearance, with three in the last decade. Their last one was just a couple of years ago in 2006. While the Terps were a 2 seed and winning a national title, the Big Green were a 14 seed and scaring the holy beejesus out of Rutgers. Seriously, they fought back from down 16 early on and had multiple chances to tie the game in the final minute. Remember what I wrote yesterday about how the parity is increasing in women's college basketball? There's yet another example of it. This also means that if the Terps get up big early, they better not go on cruise control too soon. Oh and by the way, that Dartmouth/Rutgers game was in Trenton, NJ. Not quite on the Scarlet Knight campus but close enough so that the Big Green players who were around for that game know that they can compete with a women's college basketball giant on their home turf in March. Or should I say "player"? Koren Schram is the team's only senior.

Dartmouth's leading scorer and rebounder is Brittney Smith, a 6'1 sophomore forward averaging 14.1 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. They only have one other scorer in double figures as Schram averages 12.1 points and leads the team with 66 assists. The Big Green don't score much, averaging only 56.8 points per game as a team, and they don't have much depth, with only seven players averaging more than 15 minutes per game. They've got some height, with a few 6'2 players on the roster and Smith being 6'1 herself so at least a Marissa Coleman won't tower over her. Obviously their game plan will be to slow the game down as much as possible. If Maryland prevents them from doing that, they shouldn't have trouble wearing down the Big Green. The Terps have depth issues of their own with only nine girls suiting up for today's game, but their players are much more conditioned for an up-and-down pace than the Big Green's are. If Maryland plays their usual tempo, there's no chance Dartmouth's able to stay in it for long.

Honestly though, this game shouldn't be a problem. Especially after last year, I expect the Terps to come out fired up and unlike last year, they'll keep pushing after opening strong. The screws will be tightened on defense, they'll play fast and free flowing, and this will be a rout. And hopefully that's the case for the Comcast Center crowd as well. Not only will they want to see their Terps come out with the fire and energy they so sorely lacked in last year's first round game in College Park, they'll just want to see some fire and energy (and exciting basketball) after what's sure to be a Villanova/Utah opening act that ends something like 44-42.

I'm still at home so I won't be attending this one. I am in Maryland though, so I'll get the game on ESPN at 2:30 (you can also listen to it live on http://www.wmucsports.com/, the EXCLUSIVE radio post-season home of the Terps) but I'm gonna be honest; I won't be liveblogging since I'll likely be flipping between it and whatever men's tournament game is on, and the latter will likely get more of my attention if and when the Terps blow it open, which should happen very quickly. Dartmouth only scores 57 points a game. Maryland should be most of the way to that by halftime. Recap to come later tonight once I'm back in College Park.

PREDICTION - Maryland 87, Dartmouth 44