5 Thoughts On Day 1 Of The NCAA Tournament

I'm not gonna lie; I saw virtually no tournament action today. I saw a good chunk of the second half of Rutgers/VCU...and that was basically it. Still, I have some thoughts on what went down but if you're looking for detailed analysis of why, say, Mississippi State stunned Texas, go elsewhere. These are just five simplistic reactions to the 16 first round games today:

1) Boy, is North Carolina having problems or what? I thought the South Dakota thing was just a case of the team not taking the game seriously at all (it wasn't even Senior Day, despite being the last official home game of the season...what does that tell you?) and the Coyotes happening to get red hot, hitting 14 threes, a single game record against the Tar Heels. But today, the Heels barely got by 14th seeded and sub-.500 UCF 85-80, nearly squandering a 14 point lead at the end. Granted, it was 85-71 with 33 seconds to go before the Knights went on a ridiculous run against the UNC bench but still, giving up 9 points in 33 seconds is just ridiculous, especially when it's a team as poor in quality as the Knights are. UNC dominated most of that game but the final score won't show it because of a horror show final half minute. I've said it before, I'll say it again: something's just been off about them since the UConn massacre. If they're not careful, Purdue could end their season on Monday.

2) Parity in the game is increasing, as the 14 seeds proved today. No, a 16 still hasn't beaten a 1 without two of the 1's starters (including their superstar) tearing ACL's the week before the game. No, a 15 still hasn't beaten a 2 and a 14 still hasn't beaten a 3. But they're coming closer, at least the 14's are. Aside from the aforementioned UCF game, Sacred Heart pushed Ohio State for about 30 minutes on the Buckeyes home floor and North Carolina A&T was within single digits of Florida State with less than 7 minutes to go and ended up only losing by 12. Remember, it was just two Marches ago that 3rd seeded Arizona State had to rally from 15 down in the second half to prevent 14 seed UC Riverside from pulling the stunner, and also in that tournament, 13 seed Marist ended up in the Sweet 16 after knocking off 4th seeded Ohio State and 5th seeded Middle Tennessee State. Yes, there's still a long way to go. 15 seeds Lehigh and UC Santa Barbara got waxed today, as did 13 seeds Western Carolina and Fresno State. The other 13 seed who played today, Montana, was even with Pitt for a half...and then subsequently forgot that college basketball consists of two halves. We'll see how 13 seed East Tennessee State does against Iowa State tomorrow night, as well as 14 seed Liberty against Louisville and 15 seeds Texas-San Antonio and Evansville against Baylor and Texas A&M, respectively. The guess here is that the Buccaneers can be competitive but it looks bleak for the others. Furthermore, I'm sure all four 16 seeds will get destroyed tomorrow...but then again, maybe not. Maybe one of them can put a scare in to a top seed for a while, like Coppin State did to Maryland last year. The point is, we're starting to see more and more competitive contests in the 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, and 4-13 matchups. The parity is improving, slowly but surely. And that's great to see.

3) Mississippi State takes advantage of at large gift; Georgia doesn't. Both 11th seeded SEC Bulldogs were highly criticized as at large choices and only one of them decided to shut up the critics. I just picked the wrong one. The Bulldogs took advantage of yet another Texas no-show as they upset the Longhorns 71-63 in Columbus. The key? 21 for 22 at the foul line. After missing their first, they hit blackjack (wow...that didn't work at all, oh well.) That'll get it done in almost any game. They withstood a couple of UT surges with a couple of big baskets and a lot of clutch free throw shooting. As for Texas, they haven't beaten anyone not named Missouri since Valentine's Day. This is the first time that coach Gail Goestenkors has gone out in the first round of the NCAA tournament and how unceremoneous it is. This team had so much promise and to see it end like this is just a massive disappointment. Not a good day in Austin for hoops, as the men went down to Duke tonight as well. But as for the Lady Bulldogs of Athens...well, at least I was right that they'd get Arizona State in to a white knuckle SEC slugfest. Unfortunately, that wasn't good enough. They fell 58-47 on their psuedo-home court in Duluth, making themselves the one "home team" to not capitalize on the friendly confines. How do you think Bowling Green, Illinois State, South Florida, and Boston College feel about that? And speaking of HOF head coaches making unceremoneous first round exits, Andy Landers won't be making his sixth Final Four this season, nor will he even be coming close. How about the Sun Devil defense though? Playing without injured PG Dymond Simon, they held the Lady Dawgs to 20 in the first half and under a half century for the game. That's the way to get it done on the road and in the NCAA tournament. Good job, girls.

4) Here we go again...high seeds on their home floors taking advantage of it... The elephant in the room that just won't go away. 10th seeded San Diego State took out 7th seeded DePaul 76-70 in San Diego and 7th seeded Rutgers held on against 10th seeded Virginia Commonwealth 56-51 in Piscataway. Ohio State made it 3/3 for teams playing on their home court, but it's more acceptable in their case since they were the top seed in their pod. Oh and all of this isn't including 12th seeded Gonzaga, who made the relatively (in relation to their opponent) short trip to Seattle to upset 5th seeded Xavier. Here's the point: yeah, SDSU gets 2nd seed Stanford at home and Rutgers gets 2nd seed Auburn at home and Gonzaga's gonna have another short trip against an Eastern school in Pittsburgh. No, it's not fair that the lower seeds are basically playing on the road. Yes, it's the way it has to be to maximize attendance, revenue, and growth of the game. We tried 8 subregionals last year. It didn't work. Attendance numbers were pathetic. It's a harsh reality but it is the way it is. Can we cool it with the complaints now? If your team's that good, they'll take care of business no matter where the game is. You're the 1/2/3 seed and they're the 6-10 seed for a reason; you're significantly better than they are. Prove it. For the record, your low seeds playing at home tomorrow: 9 seed Michigan State (vs Middle Tennessee), 8 seed Iowa (vs Georgia Tech), 7 seed Notre Dame (vs Minnesota), 6 seed LSU (vs Wisconsin-Green Bay), 10 seed TCU (vs South Dakota State in Lubbock, TX) If we see 5-0 or 4-1, look for the same stories that you're hearing tonight about how San Diego State only beat a Big East team because they were playing on their home floor...

5) Marist close but not quite. And the big upset pick (Gonzaga over Xavier was trendy and obvious) falls just short. The Red Foxes were up on Virginia by 5 at the half; then the Cavs took over about midway through the second half until a late Marist run came up just short. Virginia gets out of dodge with a 68-61 victory. Monica Wright was a microcosm of the UVA day; scoreless until the second half where she had 13 to spur the charge that got the lead up to 13 and then 17 before the girls from Poughkeepsie closed strong. Not a bad showing at all for them, but once the giant woke up and got hot, they just didn't have anything left in the bag. At least they performed better than their fellow 12 seed, Drexel, did. I was right about UVA sleepwalking to start this one off, but I was wrong to think that they would never snap out of their funk. Regardless, a better effort will be required against Cal in round 2.

NCAA Tournament Picks: Final Four

With the 2009 NCAA tournament on the horizon, Andy Gripshover gives you his Sheet of Integrity. Here are his tourney picks, concluding with the Final Four and National Championship. It's advised that you scroll down a few posts and read the region-by-region picks before reading these. That way, you won't have the region-by-region picks spoiled:


FINAL FOUR
(1) UConn over (2) Stanford - Revenge is a dish best served cold. A year later would qualify as a very cold dish. I'm very wary of picking the Cardinal this far as they don't have an earth-shattering win all season long and there's no superstar like a Candice Wiggins to carry them like there was last year. But I do have them going this far; however, this is where it ends. No Wiggins, no miracle upset of the top team in the land.
(1) Maryland over (1) Oklahoma - The Terps are simply a more complete team than the Sooners. Simply put, this will come down to whether Lynetta Kizer and Dee Liles handle the Paris twins or whether Whitney Hand and Danielle Robinson handle Kristi Toliver and Marissa Coleman. Whichever team's role players do a better job on the other team's superstars will win this basketball game. I'm probably biased since I've seen a lot more of Kizer and Liles than I have Hand and Robinson but that's just the way it goes when you cover the Maryland women's basketball team. My love for Kizer has been well-documented; I think she's well on her way to being the next dominant center in women's college basketball. She'll take another big step towards doing that in holding her own against arguably the greatest center in the history of women's college basketball. Furthermore, I just don't think Hand and Robinson are good enough to contain the Toliver and Coleman tandem enough for the win. If they were only facing one of the two then maybe, but they're not. Boy, what a fantastic national semifinal this would be.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
(1) UConn over (1) Maryland - It would be a dream, wouldn't it? It would be the greatest victory in the history of the Maryland Terrapins women's basketball program and it would be among the greatest victories in the history of Maryland Terrapins athletics. Not only that, it would be one of the great upsets in women's college basketball history and one of the biggest upsets in recent sports history. But I just don't think it's to be. For Maryland to win this game, they would need absolutely historic performances from Toliver and Coleman AND they would need Kizer and Liles to play at their highest levels AND Marah Strickland's three would have to be falling and she would have to play lock-down defense on someone (Renee Montgomery?) AND they would need contributions from Anjale Barrett, Kim Rodgers, Yemi Oyefuwa and Drey Mingo. All nine players would have to bring it in some way, shape, or form for the Terps to beat UConn...and even if that happens, the Terps probably would need a bit of an off night from the Huskies as well. Sorry, Terps fans. I cannot realistically predict all of that to happen. Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? No. Can I project it to happen? Sadly for the (mostly) Maryland faithful reading this blog, I cannot. The UConn Huskies are my projected 2009 women's college basketball national champions by a score of 87-71.







So there you have it. Like everyone else, I'm taking UConn all the way. How can you not? But there's a reason this touranment is being played out on basketball courts and not on this blog. It begins tomorrow (later today, actually.) Maryland opens up its tournament campaign on Sunday afternoon. I'll be back then or maybe before. Enjoy the best few weeks in sports.

NCAA Tournament Picks: Raleigh

With the 2009 NCAA tournament on the horizon, Andy Gripshover gives you his Sheet of Integrity. Here are his tourney picks, continuing with the Raleigh region, home of the Maryland Terrapins:



Raleigh Region

1st Round
(1) Maryland over (16) Dartmouth - And it'll be a lot easier than the 1/16 battle against Coppin State was last year for the Terps.
(8) Villanova over (9) Utah - Someone in the ESPN.com chat after Selection Monday jokingly asked the question "who will have more points in round 1: Maya Moore or the Villanova/Utah winner?" The only reason the answer probably won't be Moore is because she'll likely be sitting by halftime. Neither the Wildcats nor the Utes allow more than 56 points per game. Expect this one to be in the 40's or low 50's, where both teams are most comfortable. It's two teams who play the same style, but Harry Perretta's better and more experienced at it. Also, he has Laura Kurz on his team, who is the kind of player who can single-handedly be a difference maker in this kind of game. The Wildcats have beaten teams like this all season long; it's when they get in to the elite of the elite who they can't slow down, they have trouble.
(5) Kansas State over (12) Drexel - Two out of four 5/12 upsets is enough for me. This one feels like a near-miss. Wildcats may have peaked earlier in the season when they were unbeaten but they still more than held their own in the toughest conference in the country. Drexel's the best team in the CAA but I don't think they've got enough in the bag here. Like the above matchup, neither team allows more than 56 points per game. This could be slow and plodding too, which should keep the higher seed in it but I'll take the lower seed.
(4) Vanderbilt over (13) Western Carolina - Catamounts are overseeded and needed triple overtime to win the Southern Conference. They won't be a problem for the SEC tourney champs.
(6) LSU over (11) Wisconsin Green-Bay - If this game is anywhere other than the state of Louisiana, I'm probably taking the Phoenix, who have had an absolutely fantastic year with 29 wins to only 3 losses. But the Tigers aren't going down in Baton Rouge, at least not in round 1.
(3) Louisville over (14) Liberty - Flames are by far the most deadly 14 seed. Too bad the Cardinals are by far the most deadly 3 seed. Not even God can save Liberty from Angel McCoughtry.
(10) TCU over (7) South Dakota State - As far as I'm concerned, this is the toughest pick of the first round and it's not even close. Everyone should know the Jackrabbits story by now: 31-2 and # 15 in the country. One of their losses was by 12 to Maryland in Cancun over Thanksgiving break, the other was by 16 at 26-6 Oakland (hmm, a 26-6 mid major with not much on their resume? Why aren't they in this tournament? Okay, okay, I'll shut up now) after a bad first half. Everyone should also know what TCU has done. 80-68 over the Terps on opening night, 82-73 at then-unbeaten and # 3 Cal in early December, and narrow losses at Florida State (by 4) and Ohio State (by 5.) Yet, they are just 20-10 (12-4) and there was a stunning loss to 14-18 (5-11) UNLV in the Mountain West tournament. Clearly, this is the kind of team that gets up for the big opponents but doesn't always get it done in conference play when it should. I think they'll get it up for this game against the # 15 team in the country; a two loss team that's unbeaten since January 5. And the ultimate tipping point? This game's in Lubbock. Advantage: Horned Frogs, from nearby Fort Worth. I cannot wait for this one; it will be a doozy.
(2) Baylor over (15) Texas-San Antonio - This freebie is especially appreciated after the bear that was that last matchup.

2nd Round
(1) Maryland over (8) Villanova - Every elite team that the Wildcats has played has killed them. They just can't slow down the high octane cream of the crop. No chance here. I doubt this is close. Sorry, Charlie Creme.

(4) Vanderbilt over (5) Kansas State - What a tough pick, but the feeling here is that the Wildcats peaked too early while the Commodores are peaking now. That can make all the difference. Um, why in the WORLD are these two teams in the Albuquerque pod? They're not close to Albuquerque and their opponents aren't close to Albuquerque. When these teams found out where they were playing, they must have reacted like Wendell Pierce's family on "In Plain Sight" when they found out they were being relocated through Witness Protection to Albuquerque: "Albuquerque? Does anyone actually live there?"
(3) Louisville over (6) LSU - Lady Tigers are too young to pull this off and Angel McCoughtry and Louisville have dealt with atmospheres like this one all season long, winning at Notre Dame, Middle Tennessee, Utah, Xavier, South Florida, and Villanova. This would be very entertaining, though.
(10) TCU over (2) Baylor - The giant killers are at it again. I don't care what Baylor did in Oklahoma City and I don't care what Kim Mulkey or Carolyn Peck or anyone else says; the Bears aren't the same team without Danielle Wilson. I refuse to buy it. The Frogs will have a great crowd there and they'll pull off the stunner. You heard it here first. TCU's my double digit seed sleeper in to the Sweet 16. Oh, the Terps would either be really excited or really sweating to see a potential rematch with the Frogs in the Elite Eight just one game away...

Sweet 16

(1) Maryland over (4) Vanderbilt - It'll be more of a contest than last year's Sweet 16 battle but Kizer and Liles should be able to fill in for what Langhorne and Harper did. Terps would also have more of a home court advantage here than in Spokane. Good game.
(3) Louisville over (10) TCU - Is the upset possible? Yes. Am I risking it? No. I love McCoughtry and the Cardinals too much. A valient effort from the Frogs though; they'll be the Cinderella story of this tournament. That, or they'll go out to the South Dakota State buzzsaw in round 1. Knowing my luck with brackets, it'll be the latter.


Elite 8
(1) Maryland over (3) Louisville - I was about to do it. I was about to take Jeff Walz over Brenda Frese, I was about to take Angel McCoughtry over Marissa Coleman, and I was about to spell a third straight premature ending to an excellent Maryland season. But then I remembered that this team is different from the previous two. Toliver and Coleman have carried them to higher places when needed. They'll do the same here. Unlike the last two, they're peaking at the right time. That's enough to book a trip to St. Louis. Congrats to John, Hal, and Jeremy (not congrats to their wallets) who get to travel with the team wherever they go.

NCAA Tournament Picks: Oklahoma City

With the 2009 NCAA tournament on the horizon, Andy Gripshover gives you his Sheet of Integrity. Here are his tourney picks, continuing with the Oklahoma City region:


Oklahoma City Region

1st Round
(1) Oklahoma over (16) Prairie View - What an accomplishment for Prairie View, who have an absolutely laughable athletic department with the historic losing that their football and men's basketball programs have done over the years. The Panther women's basketball program reaches the NCAA tournament...and its reward is Courtney Paris. Well, at least they got here.
(8) Iowa over (9) Georgia Tech - Hawkeyes haven't lost at home in 2009 and only once on the season (to Purdue.) They've come a long way since getting dumped on at Kansas in ESPN's 23 hours of college basketball consecutively to start off the season back on November 18. Jackets have been a flaky team all season long and struggle mightily against size. Depending on the day, Iowa can have two or three starters in the lineup 6'2 or taller including their 2nd leading scorer, the 6'6 Megan Skouby. Uh oh. I thought this pick was tough at first. Now, it's easy.
(12) Gonzaga over (5) Xavier - Zags own victories at Virginia and at home over Utah. They blew through the WCC and have been building their program over the past few years. Musketeers flamed out down the stretch, losing 2 of their last 3 including at Temple and the stunner to Dayton in the A-10 touranament. Classic example of a team who peaked too early. Plus, this game's in Seattle. No brainer upset.
(4) Pittsburgh over (13) Montana - Lady Grizz always are a threat from a seed line such as this and they've got a hell of a team yet again, but I can't see Shavonte Zellous going down in round 1. What a 4-13 though. Zellous and Mandy Morales could absolutely duel. Panthers are battle-tested from that Big East though; it's hard to see them getting upended by the Grizzlies, even though I know this is going to be a popular upset call. Montana might have a home court advantage in Seattle but I don't think it will be enough of one to really make too big of a difference.
(6) Purdue over (11) Charlotte - I've probably ragged on the Boilers too hard in this space. Yeah, they really struggled down the stretch when I saw them in the Big Ten tournament. They also went 13-5 in the Big Ten and 22-10 overall, sweeping Iowa and Minnesota and beating Texas. They're an up-and-down team but they should be able to handle business over a Charlotte team that's decent but nothing great and has not-so-great losses to a bunch of mediocre North Carolina schools in N.C. State, Wake Forest, and North Carolina A&T. They DID drill Temple in the A-10 final to get that league's auto bid but I don't see it here.
(3) North Carolina over (14) Central Florida - UCF got overseeded. They should be at least a 15, probably a 16. They're only 16-15 overall. Hopefully for their sake, the Tar Heels take this more seriously than they took South Dakota in their "tune up game" for this tournament. They'll roll here.
(7) Rutgers over (10) VCU - Scarlet Knights got red hot to end the season and they're on their home floor. They'll cruise here and I mean cruise. The Rams shouldn't even be in the field. Excuse me while I rant here because I'm about to go off. There's zero heft on VCU's resume (no RPI top 50 wins) and they didn't play anybody out of conference aside from North Carolina, who beat them by 12. This team gets in and South Florida and Boston College, both of whom showed relatively well (.500 in BC's case, 9-8 in USF's) in two of the toughest leagues in the country, don't? This team gets in and 27-4 Bowling Green who was ranked most of the season and actually has a top 50 RPI win (RPI 40 Ball State) gets snubbed for losing by 4 in the MAC title game? VCU didn't even MAKE the CAA title game! They didn't even win the CAA regular season title! They lost to RPI 169 NC-Wilmington by 13! Why is this team in the NCAA tournament?! Seriously, why?! Bowling Green fans have to be FURIOUS. They have everything that VCU has on its resume except better. South Florida fans should be fuming, too. They have actual living, breathing good wins and they came on the road, to boot (DePaul, Rutgers, Villanova.) Yet a mid major team with nothing resembling a quality win that didn't win its conference title in the regular season and didn't even make its conference tournament final gets in over them. BC fans shouldn't be as outraged since they didn't beat anybody (only 3 RPI top 100 wins) but at least they played people and went .500 in a really good league (and showed well against some very good teams.) As far as I'm concerned, that's a hell of a lot more than VCU did. They've got two RPI top 50 wins which is two more than the Rams have, and their win over James Madison is their third best win whereas VCU's two wins over the Dukes are their first and second best victories. Ooh, 26 wins. ZERO OF THEM are against RPI top 50 competition, only FIVE OF THEM are against top 100 competition, there's no conference regular season title, there's not even a conference tournament finals appearance, there's a double digit loss to a sub-150 RPI team...just what in the world is VCU doing in this field? The thing that drives me so crazy about this is that VCU is the epitome of a team that should NOT make the NCAA tournament. What has the committee, both men's and women's, preached time and again for teams? YOU HAVE TO PLAY PEOPLE. VCU didn't. Plain and simple. They didn't play anyone, they didn't beat anyone, yet they're in the field. Unbelievable. I honestly don't see how Bowling Green, a souped up version of VCU, gets snubbed, and VCU gets in. I honestly don't see how South Florida and Boston College, two teams who played people and beat people and held their own in two of the three toughest leagues in the country, get snubbed and VCU gets in. I'm sorry for such a long rant...this is just an egregious error on the committee's part in my opinion.
(2) Auburn over (15) Lehigh - Like I have any energy to type anything about this game after that. Tigers roll even though I could see the Mountain Hawks having something of a home court advantage if they bring people up to Piscataway from Bethlehem. It won't be nearly enough.

2nd Round
(1) Oklahoma over (8) Iowa - Just to give you an example of how much the Hawkeyes have improved since 2008: they lost by a combined 60 points to Cal and Duke back in December. Granted, the game after, they beat Iowa State by 20 and have turned it on since then. Still, I don't see Courtney Paris going out in the second round after she made that guarantee. Iowa's big girls grab a shockingly low number of rebounds. They'll be able to wreck Georgia Tech's listless interior but they won't have a prayer against the Paris twins.
(4) Pittsburgh over (12) Gonzaga - I feel like the Panthers are an extremely underrated team. Yeah, it was middle of December and yeah, Marissa Coleman and Maryland quit in the second half, but you don't beat the Terps by 29 and not be one of the better teams in the country. This was the third best team in the Big East all year long and I feel like people are sleeping on both them and Zellous, who should probably be second team All American. I like them to the Sweet 16.
(3) North Carolina over (6) Purdue - Someone in the ESPN.com chat after Selection Monday...I forget if it was Graham Hays or Charlie Creme, but one of them said in the chat that they like Purdue over UNC in the second round. What? Only way the Boilers have a prayer is if they make this in to a knock down, drag-em-out defensive fight where the Tar Heels turnovers kill them. I don't see that happening. Purdue's way too uneven to win a game like this. Ohio State sweeping them and Maryland handling them in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge is enough evidence to me that the Boilers can't beat top-end teams. The way they looked in the second half against the Terps and in the stretch run of the Big Ten title game also exemplifies how they choke in the clutch against top tier competition.
(7) Rutgers over (2) Auburn - It seems almost too easy. The Scarlet Knights are at home and on a roll and have experience deep in to March, especially with upsets, and the Lady Tigers are inexperienced in the tournament and kind of skidded in to this tournament after their long unbeaten start...but I can't help but take the bait. Rutgers will make this in to a slogging battle of attrition that I don't think the Tigers can win. The Scarlet Knight D should be able to do what Vandy's D did in the SEC title game and what Georgia's D did to the Lady Tigers in both meetings. That and a rocking RAC crowd should be enough to rattle Whitney Boddie, DeWanna Bonner, and the rest of the Lady Tigers.

Sweet 16
(1) Oklahoma over (4) Pittsburgh - If the Sooners get to Oklahoma City, I can't see them going down. Just too much of a home court advantage and they won't be listless like they were in the Big 12 semifinals loss to Texas A&M in OKC. Zellous really carries Pitt but she won't be able to carry them past Courtney Paris and friends. With Whitney Hand and Danielle Robinson, you could actually make the case that OU's guards are just as good, if not better, than Pitt's.
(3) North Carolina over (7) Rutgers - Scarlet Knights have lost to every elite team they've faced this year. The battles have gotten tougher as of late (just ask Louisville) but I don't see them winning two straight games over top 10/15 competition. I don't think the Tar Heels will let the Scarlet Knights control tempo, because they know if they do, they'll lose. RU's going to have to shoot really well and/or dominate on the offensive boards to keep UNC from breaking out in to fast breaks and quick hoops. I don't think they can do either.

Elite 8
(1) Oklahoma over (3) North Carolina - Here's where Cetera DeGraffenreid kills the Tar Heels. Jessica Breland, who has underachieved at times this year, also will have her hands more than full with the Paris twins. A rematch of the epic preseason NIT final goes the other way this time as the Sooners take care of business on their psuedo-home floor. UNC hasn't been the same since the UConn demolition. They just haven't had the same fire against top teams. It'll cost them here.

NCAA Tournament Picks: Berkeley

With the 2009 NCAA tournament on the horizon, Andy Gripshover gives you his Sheet of Integrity. Here are his tourney picks, continuing with the Berkeley region:


Berkeley Region

1st Round
(1) Duke over (16) Austin Peay - Lady Govs are just 16-15 and are the lowest rated RPI team in the field. They probably won't get to 40 if Duke's trying and might not even get to 30.
(8) Middle Tennessee over (9) Michigan State - Might be among the toughest picks of the first round because it's at the Breslin Center. Still, the Spartans are in poor form, come from a poor conference, and MTSU won't be intimidated by the road atmosphere. They're one of the best mid major programs in the country and I see them stunning the East Lansing faithful and spoiling the Joanne P. McCallie homecoming in round 2.
(5) Tennessee over (12) Ball State - Like I'm picking against Pat Summitt in the first round. Get serious. The Cardinal are potentially dangerous...but they're not upsetting a Pat Summitt led team in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Sorry, girls.
(4) Iowa State over (13) East Tennessee State - Buccaneers won at Kentucky, which is more than another team in this pod can say, but I just don't see them being too much of a match for the Cyclones, who have faced tough competition in the Big 12 all year long and also have a win over Vanderbilt. Interesting note in this region; all four teams are kinda close to Bowling Green, KY, but none can really claim it as a "home court." Weird.
(6) Texas over (11) Mississippi State - Both teams really had to grind in their conferences and finished in the middle of the pack so I get the feeling they're similiar in that regard, but the Longhorns are probably just a little bit better at it since they come from a much tougher league. Interesting first round game.
(3) Ohio State over (14) Sacred Heart - Like I said in the liveblog, Jantel Lavender could probably win this one all by herself. Especially on her home court.
(10) San Diego State over (7) DePaul - Aztecs haven't lost at home all year. They're at home for this one. Blue Demons got fat mostly off the lower division of the Big East, never really impressing me all year aside from maybe a win at Pitt. Mountain West is a good league so SDSU is battle tested and should hold serve on their home floor here.
(2) Stanford over (15) UC Santa Barbara - Gauchos won't be repeating their 2004 Sweet 16 run, to say the very least. They're actually closer to home than Stanford is for this first round matchup in San Diego. It won't matter.

2nd Round
(1) Duke over (8) Middle Tennessee - Bad matchup for the Blue Raiders. They won't be able to out-defend Duke in a matchup where I would be absolutely shocked if either team got to 70. Attendance for this one will be embarrassingly low after the home-town Spartans disappoint in round 1.
(5) Tennessee over (4) Iowa State - You're kidding yourself if you don't see a Tennessee run coming. Pat Summitt says her team turned a corner in the SEC tournament and who am I to doubt her? Vols will have a home court advantage here with their rabid fans making the short trek up to Kentucky and it'll pay off.
(6) Texas over (3) Ohio State - Longhorns won at Baylor and Iowa State in the regular season so they're well-versed in winning on people's home courts. Ashley Lindsay and Kathleen Nash are more than enough to handle Jantel Lavender down low and with all due respect to Jim Foster, Gail Goestenkors can coach circles around him. I pretty much came out and said I'd take the Buckeyes out first weekend and I'm sticking to it.
(2) Stanford over (10) San Diego State - The upset is just, just out of reach for the Aztecs. This would be quite a matchup though. I just can't see Jayne Appel and co. going down in round 2. They're # 2 in the country for a reason and # 2 teams in the country don't go down to San Diego States in the round of 32.

Sweet 16
(1) Duke over (5) Tennessee - Blue Devils went to Knoxville and more or less dominated with defense on national television back in February. The same should happen here on a neutral floor in Berkeley. Vols are just too young to break through the Duke styming D, no matter how much Summitt coaches them up.
(2) Stanford over (6) Texas - Longhorns weren't even close either time against Oklahoma. Stanford's about as good as Oklahoma and may even be better. Texas was 9-9 in the Big 12; that's just not going to cut it against a team as good as the Cardinal.

Elite 8
(2) Stanford over (1) Duke - History repeats itself. A ticked-off Cardinal plays an amazing game to torch the Blue Devil defense, which has shown weakness against the best of the best at times, especially on the road, as exemplified in the second half of their trips to UNC and Maryland. Same deal here; Cardinal explodes in half 2 to make it to St. Louis.

NCAA Tournament Picks: Trenton

EDITOR'S NOTE: Ugh, Blogger deleted my Trenton picks. Unbelievable. Actually I probably did it without even realizing it when I was trying to mess around with the editing (since I did the picks earlier this week and saved them in one draft...should've saved a copy in Word, ugh) but I'm blaming it on Blogger. Whatever, everyone in the world knows who's coming out of Trenton so if there was one region to screw up, it was this one. The rest of these picks will have much more detailed analysis but because I deleted all my Trenton stuff, I'm just gonna redo them and rush them up with very quick comments for each.



With the 2009 NCAA tournament on the horizon, Andy Gripshover gives you his Sheet of Integrity. Here are his tourney picks:



Trenton Region



1st Round

(1) UConn over (16) Vermont (Remember how countries like Angola took pictures with and got autographs from the Dream Team before getting smashed by them in the 92 Olympics? This should be something like that.)
(8) Florida over (9) Temple (Most irrelevant game in tournament history?)
(12) Marist over (5) Virginia (first upset, just not feeling the A game from the Wahoos out in Los Angeles and the Red Foxes match up relatively well and have Cinderella pedigree)
(4) Cal over (13) Fresno State (Bulldogs have no answer for Walker)
(11) Georgia over (6) Arizona State (Home court and gritty, defensive SEC style get Dawgs and Andy Landers the upset)
(3) Florida State over (14) North Carolina A&T (Monroe and Davis-Cain way too much)
(7) Notre Dame over (10) Minnesota (Irish got underseeded, Gophers got overseeded and probably shouldn't even be in the tournament. Also, it's on ND's home floor.)
(2) Texas A&M over (15) Evansville (Purple Aces should be a 16)

2nd Round

(1) UConn over (8) Florida (by 30 or 40 to show the rest of the field they mean business even in the early rounds)
(4) Cal over (12) Marist (Red Foxes got owned by the Paris twins back in November, they'll get owned by Walker and co. here)
(3) Florida State over (11) Georgia (Experience in winning on opponent's turf in the NCAA tourney as well as the bad memories of last year's second round spur the Seminole upperclass leaders to get them through this tough test)
(2) Texas A&M over (7) Notre Dame (Heck of a game. Aggies just a bit too much at the Joyce Center)

Sweet 16
(1) UConn over (4) Cal (Bears are in trouble, even if they go up 26 at half)
(2) Texas A&M over (3) Florida State (Revenge for the 17 point collapse in early January)



Elite 8
(1) UConn over (2) Texas A&M (If the Aggies can't figure out Baylor, how are they gonna figure out the Huskies?)

LIVEBLOG: Selection Monday

Here we go. I've never done one of these before so if there are spelling errors or whatever else, I apologize in advance. This should be fun. Let's do it.

7:00 - Trey Wingo opens up by claiming that UConn has been "unbeaten and untested." I would say that their regular season finale against Rutgers in Piscataway was something of a test but whatever. The Huskies have beaten ranked teams by an average of 31.4 points, a number that was SportsCenter's Closing Number. Impressive. To say the least.

7:01 - ESPN cameras are at Tennessee, South Dakota State, and UConn, where the Huskies are still practicing. They're unbelievable. Wingo, Kara Lawson, and Carolyn Peck are your hosts.

7:04 - Wingo asks Lawson to compare UConn to the greatest UConn teams of all time. She of course goes the political route and says that they haven't gone unbeaten yet. Then he asks Peck what you need to beat UConn. She says (1) great point guard to match up with Renee Montgomery, (2) a great power forward to match up with Maya Moore, and (3) a great center to match up with Tina Charles. Of course, then she's asked if anyone can beat UConn and she says that Maryland can "match up" with them. Fair enough. What's not fair enough is that apparently Renee Montgomery plays for Maryland now. Come on Carolyn. You can't mix up her and Kristi Toliver. That's just terrible.

7:04 - Interview with Maya Moore time. Come on, get to the brackets already. She's averaging 19.1 points and 9.1 rebounds per game this season. Yeah, she's good. Moore's at Gampel Pavilion in Storrs because as I said before, the UConn women are currently practicing. Obviously they know what seed they are (# 1 overall) and where they're going (Trenton.) Wingo keeps the interview brief, only three questions.

7:06 - Ooh, montage of teams who went unbeaten in the regular season but lost in the tournament. First we have 1990 Louisiana Tech who was 34-0 but lost to Auburn in the national semifinals. The montage ends with 1997 UConn who went 33-0 but lost Nykesha Sales and then lost to Tennessee in the regional final. "The point we're trying to make is 'anything can happen," says Wingo. Then he brings up 18-1.

7:07 - Tennessee feature on Summitt yelling at her team at practice. It's been well-documented everything she's done this year; kicking them out of the locker room, calling them the least energized team she's ever coached, etc. They'll get their lowest seed in a long, long time tonight. Commercial.

7:11 - We're starting in Raleigh. Maryland's the # 1 seed and they'll get 16 seed Dartmouth, the champions of the Ivy League. The Big Green are 18-10 but should be no match in round 1. Much more on them later.

7:13 - Ooh, the 8-9 is Villanova/Utah! The Utes are tough out of the Mountain West and as for Nova, well, Charlie Creme could get his dream game. The 5-12 is Kansas State/Drexel. Dragons are making their first NCAA appearance ever after ending the 17 year reign of Old Dominon in the CAA. K-State started the year 14-0 before conference play so they could be dangerous as well. 4-13 is Vanderbilt/Western Carolina. Terps could see the Commodores in Sweet 16 for the second year in a row but this time, Vandy has an SEC title and two victories over Auburn in their pocket. They'll get a much tougher fight than the 81-66 regional semi in Spokane last year. Oh and there's no Crystal Langhorne to absolutely destroy the 'Dores this year, either.

7:14 - Bottom half of Raleigh. 6/11 is LSU/Wisconsin Green Bay. Phoenix went 29-3 so they'll be dangerous for the Tigers, who have had a down year after replacing everyone from their four straight Final Fours. 3-14...oh no. Louisville/Liberty. Thought the Cardinals would get a 2 seed but nope. Liberty's a dangerous 14 but the Cards shouldn't have a problem. 7-10...OH WOW. South Dakota State got SNUBBED. Charlie Creme had them as a 5. Instead they get a 7. They'll get 10th seed TCU, who the Terps know well from the opening night loss in Fort Worth. In fact, the Terps know both these teams well; they beat South Dakota State in Cancun over Thanksgiving break. That's one of just two losses for the Jackrabbits on the year (the other was to Oakland in Summit League play.)

7:15 - 2/15 is Baylor/Texas San Antonio. Well, at least one thing went right for the Terps in this region as they get the Danielle Wilson-less Bears as their 2. Louisville's probably going to handle them in the Sweet 16...if South Dakota State or TCU doesn't get the Bears first.

7:17 - Peck says "it won't be an easy road for the Terps." No kidding. Vanderbilt is a tough 4. Why isn't she talking about Louisville? Yeah, Baylor's still great with no Danielle Wilson but they're not the same team without her. Kansas destroyed them and the Bears didn't have to get by Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament. Yes, they beat Texas A&M but the Bears own the Aggies, going 3-0 against them this year. 100% chance I take Louisville to the Elite Eight.

7:17 - Piece on the Courtney Paris guarantee and what Bubba Paris said to Sherri Coale as we go to break. I haven't weighed in on all that yet. I'll just say this in the short time we have: it's all ridiculous, unprecedented, and Courtney is crazy.

7:20 - Oklahoma City region time. Oklahoma's your top seed and they'll face Prairie View A&M in the first round. Easy win. During the Courtney Paris puff piece, Wingo brings up UConn crushing the Sooners in Storrs. What a performance that was.

7:22 - 8/9 is Iowa/Georgia Tech. Yeah, the Jackets got killed in seeding by that Clemson loss in the ACC tourney but only lost to UConn by 11 in Storrs. 5/12 is Xavier/Gonzaga. Upset alert there. Zags beat Virginia in the regular season and Xavier skidded to end the year and hasn't won a tourney game since 2001 when they stunned Tennessee. 4/13 is Pittsburgh/Montana. Ooh, Shavonte Zellous against Mandy Morales. That'll be fun. Potential upset alert there because the Grizz are one of those mid major powers but the Panthers are a very tough out.

7:23 - More on the Paris Guarantee from Lawson and Peck. Peck makes the point that Paris is putting a ton of pressure on players like Danielle Robinson and Whitney Hand, who are both underclassman. "It's about 'we', not 'me," she says. Very true. I don't think Robinson and Hand mind the extra pressure, though. They want to win just as badly.

7:24 - Bottom half of Oklahoma City. 6/11 is Purdue/Charlotte. Boilers could get stunned there if they're as bad as they were against Ohio State in the Big Ten final. 3/14 is North Carolina/Central Florida. UCF has no chance; they started the year 2-11 and is just 17-16 overall. Then again, I thought South Dakota had no chance against UNC yesterday and they only lost by 6 after being up 15 in the second half. 7-10 is Rutgers/VCU. Wow at a 10 for the Rams. Not only did I think they wouldn't get in, I didn't think they'd be as high as a 10. As for the Scarlet Knights, they're hot and they get to stay home for the first two rounds. Looking for a Cinderella Sweet 16 team? You may have found them. 2-15...yeah, I'm an idiot. Auburn's a 2. They'll get Lehigh in round 1. Duke's probably the final # 1. Even worse for the Tigers? They're in the Piscataway pod with Rutgers as the 7. Uh oh.

7:27 - Peck describes the RAC as "walking in to the Lion's Den." I would agree. That's one of the toughest places to play in women's college hoops.

7:28 - Ugh, another Tennessee piece. This one is just Summitt talking about her team and "demanding more" and things of that sort. One was enough but you know how ESPN overkills things. Shot of the Vols watching the Selection Show as we go to break.

7:31 - Berkeley region time. And the last # 1 is...Duke. Yep. Props to Charlie Creme for calling it. 11 straight Sweet 16's for the Blue Devils. Standing in their way of that in round 1 will be Austin Peay. I'll go out on a limb and say that the Lady Governors won't end that streak.

7:32 - 8/9 is Middle Tennessee/Michigan State. Very interesting because Duke's coach, Joanne P. McCallie, used to coach at MSU. That's a potentially very interesting second round clash but the Blue Raiders are not to be overlooked as the 8. They're very dangerous. 5/12...there's Tennessee. That might be a little high for them but you knew they'd be overseeded due to strength of schedule and things of that sort. The Vols get Ball State, the surprise champs of the MAC after beating Bowling Green in the final. 4/13 is Iowa State/East Tennessee State.

7:33 - Bottom half of Berkeley. 6/11 is Texas/Mississippi State. Ooh, Bulldogs get in off the bubble. It's their first NCAA appearance since 2003. 3/14 is Ohio State/Sacred Heart. Jantel Lavender should win that by herself. 7/10 is DePaul/San Diego State. Mountain West has three teams in so far. Good for them. 2/15...it's history repeating for Stanford. They're a 2 in the western region when they felt they maybe should have been a 1. They get UC Santa Barbara first. If seeds hold, we could see a Stanford/Duke rematch of the 56-52 Blue Devil victory in Durham on December 16, this time for a regional final.

7:35 - Are you kidding? Pat Summitt interview. Yes, Tennessee is the face of women's college basketball along with UConn but come on. Not even the Huskies are getting this much attention. Eh, I guess ESPN has to do filler to fill an hour. But you couldn't talk about whether or not Duke deserved this 1 seed or the potential Cardinal/Blue Devil rematch in the Elite Eight? Whatever.

7:36 - Wingo asks Summitt what the most difficult part of coaching this Vol team has been. Great question. She's ducking it, though. She says the SEC tournament "turned the corner for us." We'll see. I like their draw. Ball State's a very dangerous 12 but the Vols should handle them. There are better 4 seeds out there than Iowa State. And Duke is easily the worst 1 seed. Tennessee hit the jackpot, I think.

7:38 - This interview is much longer than the Moore one but it's mostly because Summitt is rambling. Coaches tend to do that. Trust me, I know from personal experience with Brenda Frese. Wingo tells us that Tennessee has made EIGHTEEN Final Fours. Yeah, they have a decent history. I'm not sure if they can make it 19 this year though.

7:39 - Wingo smoothly transitions in to UConn as the Trenton region is the last to be revealed. There will also be a Geno Auriemma interview, presumably after Trenton is revealed. Commercial.

7:42 - We come back from break with a couple of highlights of UConn championships from years past. Time for the Trenton region. Gee, I wonder who's the # 1 seed here? Vermont's the lamb up for slaughter in round 1. Poor Catamounts. Peck then says in the Maya Moore highlight package that "she can even make mistakes look good," and "sometimes all I can say is 'wow." You and me both, Carolyn. This is the fourth time UConn's entered the tourney unbeaten; they've won it 2 out of the first 3 times.

7:44 - 8/9 is Florida/Temple. Boy did the Gators fall off from when they cracked in to the top 10 in February. Owls are a dangerous 9 seed and are always a tough out in March. 5/12 is Virginia/Marist and we have another upset alert. Remember, the Red Foxes were a Sweet 16 as a 13 seed two years ago. Virginia's been up and down all year and if Marist has a big body to put on Aisha Mohammed and can contain (not stop, just contain) Monica Wright and Lyndra Littles, they'll be able to pull this off. 4/13 is Cal/Fresno State. Golden Bears need to turn it around. After they lost to UCLA and got drilled by Arizona State, they went down to USC in the Pac-10 tourney semifinals on a game-tying basket that came just after the buzzer. Don't think the Bulldogs will put up too much resistence to Ashley Walker and co. in round 1, however.

7:45 - Bottom half of Trenton. 6/11 is Arizona State/Georgia. I knew the Lady Bulldogs would get in. Selection committee showing a lot of love for the SEC with first Miss. State and now UGA getting in off the bubble. They'll be dangerous as Andy Landers teams always are. 3/14 is Florida State/North Carolina A&T. That seems like an awfully good seed for the Aggies; they shouldn't stand much of a chance. 7/10 is Notre Dame/Minnesota as the Gophers get in off the bubble as a 10, just like the men's team did yesterday. 2/15 is Texas A&M/Evansville. I'm shocked the Purple Aces aren't a 16 as they're 15-18 overall. Takia Starks and the Aggies should have no problem. I can't believe they're a 2 and Louisville's a 3, but whatever.

7:47 - Lawson describes Trenton as such: "Hello! Welcome to the path of least resistence region for UConn." Peck says that UConn can be beaten on a bad night but says, "I haven't seen a bad night yet." But her and Wingo stress that it's possible. Yeah, okay. We'll see.

7:48 - Auriemma interview time. Wingo's first question is about Lawson's comment. Love it. Auriemma jokes that Lawson's comment is biased because of where she went to college (Tennessee) and then says that he got sick of hearing ESPN and other talking heads going on and on about how UConn is destroying everybody. I love him.

7:51 - Apparently UConn is at the intermural championships, as Auriemma clarifies due to a buzzer going off in the background while he's talking. Haha. Each interview has been longer than the last one though I'll definitely argue that any interview with Auriemma should be the longest one, because of how entertaining he is and how much he has to say about his team and the rest of women's college basketball.

7:52 - Wingo does a Venezuela/Puerto Rico WBC promo before going to break. Only a few minutes left; I'm expecting little more than final thoughts to wrap this baby up when we come back.

7:54 - God, that LeBron James Vitamin Water commercial where he's the top defense attorney in Ohio is great. I also enjoy this year's women's tourney spot with the montage of player highlights and coach interviews. Good stuff.

7:55 - Early games on Saturday = Mississippi State/Texas, Georgia/Arizona State, North Carolina/UCF, and Auburn/Lehigh. Then a ESPN SportsNation poll reveals that 80.5% of SportsNation believes UConn will win the national title "no matter how the brackets are revealed." Not shocking.

7:56 - Quick interview with selection committee chair Jackie Silar. First question is, appropriately, about the last # 1 seed. Silar said that she was out of the room during the discussion of Duke because she's the associate athletic director there, but when she returned, she was told that they were 11-4 against top 50 teams with wins over Stanford, Maryland, North Carolina, and Florida State and that these wins separated Duke from the other teams considered as the # 1 seed. How about THAT for an explanation? If only we got stuff like that from Mike Slive, Craig Littlepage, and other men's tournament selection committee chairs. Big, BIG ups to Jackie Silar.

7:57 - Only one other question and it mostly results in Silar explaining the new 16 site pod system which isn't too new since that's the way it used to be.

7:58 - Final Four predictions time. Lawson goes UConn out of Trenton, Oklahoma out of Oklahoma City, Stanford out of Berkeley, and Maryland out of Raleigh. She's got UConn and Maryland in the title game and UCon winning it all. Peck has UConn out of Trenton, Stanford out of Berkeley, Maryland out of Raleigh, and Auburn out of Oklahoma City because of their "athleticism" and how "they can go quick or they can go big." She too has the Huskies over the Terps to win the whole ball of wax, with apologies to Geno Auriemma.

7:59 - Aww, no Final Four predictions from Wingo and no sleepers from each region either. Oh well. Excellent show. The UConn/Tennessee/Courtney Paris guarantee coverage was a little much but other than that, this was very enjoyable. I'll need a deeper look at the bracket before I go in to it more but many of my initial reactions of first round matchups are posted here anyways. Hope you enjoyed my first ever attempt at a Liveblog. See you later on with deeper analysis of the Raleigh region for the Terps and then the bracket as a whole.

PRE-SHOW: Selection Monday

We're a couple of minutes away from the brackets being revealed on ESPN. Unlike yesterday, there will be no drama for Maryland when the seeds and pairings are revealed. It would be an earth-shattering stunner if the Terps aren't the # 1 seed in the Raleigh regional. The real question is what their region is going to look like. I have to believe they don't want to see North Carolina in there because the Tar Heels would have a clear home court advantage in a potential Sweet 16 or Elite Eight matchup. That didn't work out too well for the Terps in last year's tournament. I also think that the Terps should want no part of Louisville. The Cardinals are extremely dangerous, led by Angel McCoughtry, who could and should be a consensus All-American. She is one of the few players in the country who could not only be a match for Marissa Coleman but could outperform her. Furthermore, the Cardinals are coached by Jeff Walz. Walz used to be an assistant coach for Brenda Frese in College Park so obviously he knows her, her players, and her style and tendencies well. Some feel he was the architecht of many of her great recruiting classes and all know that he has pretty much built Louisville's program from the ground up, landing McCoughtry and coaching her and the rest of the Cardinals up to being a top 5 team. I personally think that the Terps should be rooting to be in the same region as Baylor, as the Bears have no Danielle Wilson (their leading scorer and rebounder) or maybe Auburn, who I've felt has been a bit overrated all year long and looked terrible in their SEC title game loss to Vanderbilt, the second best team in the SEC who swept them this season. But we shall see.

The big question mark going in to Selection Monday is "who will get the last # 1 seed?" Connecticut's going to be the # 1 seed in the Trenton region. Maryland's going to be the # 1 seed in the Raleigh region. Oklahoma's probably going to be the # 1 seed in the Oklahoma City region. But that leaves the Berkeley region where as many as five teams could be vying for that final top seed.

ESPN's Charlie Creme has Duke getting the last # 1 seed. I don't see it. It would be a definite surprise to me and possible if the committee puts a lot of weight on marquee wins...but I don't see it. Duke just doesn't measure up to the other teams in contention, IMO. They're not as highly ranked, there's that embarrassing loss to Hartford, and they were 3rd or 4th best in the ACC almost all year.

Louisville won't get it. Not enough great wins and too bad of a lasting impression last Tuesday.

Baylor won't get it. They're 2nd in the Big 12 despite the tourney title and too much of a gamble with no Danielle Wilson. That Kansas loss was really, really bad.

I think it's realistically down to Auburn, Duke and Stanford. Stanford's gonna be just as pissed if not more pissed than last year if they don't get it but like you've said before, they're a lot like Memphis in that they rolled through a weak league. Auburn is sort of the same way.

As we learned last year, the committee loves teams who schedule tough and rack up big wins. Stanford just doesn't have the meat on its resume. They schedule tough but their best RPI win is over RPI 15 Iowa State. Iowa State is maybe the 4th best team in the Big 12. The second best RPI win is over RPI 19 Rutgers. Rutgers finished the year 18-12 (10-8.) I'm eliminating them.

So Auburn or Duke? Duke has the more power wins and the tougher schedule...but I just can't get over how they're 3rd or 4th best in the ACC both on paper and in the standings. Auburn was 29-3 in the SEC. Yes, Tennessee's more down than ever and Florida free fell after reaching the top 10 but the SEC is still the fourth toughest league in the country and the Tigers lost three games in it while going unbeaten out of conference.

The more and more I think about it (as in, the more and more I analyze it while doing this post), the more and more I can see it going to Duke, but I'm too stubborn to back down. I'm gonna say that it goes to Auburn. We shall see. It's just about time to go. I'll be back sometime later with either with a liveblog or a wrapup post.

Better ACC Tournament Run: Men in 04 or Women in 09?

Welcome back! After a rather uneventful week for the Maryland Terrapins women's basketball team, it's finally Selection Monday. Before we get to that, though, it's time to bang out a post that I've had in queue for a few days now.

I've ranted and raved and bestowed the highest of praise on the ACC tournament run that the Terps pulled off last weekend. But after it was all over, I found myself wondering "was it as good, as meaningful, and as special as the men's team's ACC tournament run in 2004?"

There were a couple of parallels between the two. Both were in Greensboro. Both featured tight victories over Wake Forest on Friday. Both featured thrilling, epic overtime victories over Duke on Sunday to claim the title. Both broke 20 year ACC tournament championship droughts. And both featured one elite player raising their game and carrying their team, especially on Saturday and Sunday.

The key difference was the two Maryland teams themselves. The women's team was # 4 in the country and 25-4 coming in. They had won the regular season ACC title and were the # 1 seed in the tournament. They were mostly playing to break their 20 year ACC tourney title drought and to lock up a # 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The men were a completely different story. Going in to the 2004 ACC tournament, they were just 17-11, 7-9 in ACC play. They were the # 6 seed in the tournament and thought to be on the wrong side of the proverbial "bubble." They were playing to make a run and make it in to the NCAA tournament. Think this year's men's team (except they would end up beating Duke and going on to win the tournament.)

The women came back from down 12 on Friday to defeat 9th seeded Wake Forest 72-70. On Saturday, they beat 4th seeded and # 11 North Carolina 95-84. On Sunday they took down 3rd seed and # 10 Duke 92-89 in overtime.

The men beat 3rd seeded and # 16 Wake Forest 87-86 on a John Gilchrist free throw in the waning seconds. On Saturday, they pulled off the biggest comeback in ACC tournament history, rallying from down 21 in the first half (and 19 at halftime) to stun 2nd seeded and # 17 North Carolina State 85-82 behind a career-high 30 from Gilchrist. On Sunday, the Terps came back from down 12 in the second half to force overtime and then defeat top seeded and # 5 Duke 95-87.

Which was the better, more impressive, and more special tournament title run? Let's break it down category by category:

Degree of Difficulty - First of all, immense credit to both for taking down the top three teams on Tobacco Road in three days in Greensboro. As almost every Maryland player, past and present, will tell you, that's an incredibly difficult feat and an amazing one to pull off. However, this is no contest. While there's something to be said for beating Carolina and Duke in back-to-back days, neither were anywhere near the juggernaut that the 04 Duke men's team was. Those Blue Devils ended the year 31-6 with a Final Four semifinal loss to eventual national champion Connecticut. Furthermore, the male Terps won their ACC tourney title in arguably the most loaded ACC in recent history. The Wake Forest team they beat on day 1 got a 4 seed in to the NCAA tournament and ended the year 22-10 with a Sweet 16 loss to top seeded St. Joseph's, who went unbeaten through the regular season. The N.C. State team they beat on day 2 ended up getting a 3 seed in the NCAA tournament and finished the year 21-10 with a second round loss to Vanderbilt. The ACC that year also featured Georgia Tech, who got a 3 seed and made it all the way to the national championship game, as well as North Carolina, who got a 6 and made the second round. Not a single ACC team flamed out in the first round of the NCAA's, two made the Final Four, and in the ACC tournament run the Terps made, they knocked off three top 20 teams in three days including the # 5 team in the country. This is no contest. Edge - 2004 Men

Drama - Again, this isn't too much of a contest. We can call the title games over Duke a wash (for now.) Both went to overtime, both were incredibly dramatic in their own ways, both featured epic performances by Maryland superstars (more on this later), and both were epic triumphs in that extra session. So we go to the first two days where it's not even close. In their Friday game, the men were tied with Wake Forest nine times before surging out to an 86-81 lead. The Deacons rallied back to tie it behind Chris Paul, who tied a career-high with 30 points and is currently doing pretty well for himself in the NBA, before John Gilchrist hit the game winning free throw with 3.7 seconds to go to pull off the 87-86 victory. Then all the men's team did on Saturday was pull off the largest comeback in ACC tournament history thanks in large part to Gilchrist's career-high 30. The women came back from down 12 with 9:53 to go on Friday...but that's tempered a bit by the fact that they shouldn't have even been down 12 in the first place. Also, after they came back, Wake Forest more or less wiltered and the game wasn't terribly in doubt after the Terps got the lead; you kind of knew they would win. Besides, Saturday's game against UNC doesn't measure up in the drama category. Yes, it was a rollercoaster ride back and forth with all the runs and lead changes, but the Terps seized control at the end and won by 11. Again, this isn't really a contest. Edge - 2004 Men.

Meaningfulness - As I said before, both were the first ACC tournament titles in 20 years for the respective programs. That's incredibly special in itself. However, the meaning of this was much bigger for the women than it was for the men. From before the first tip off, Marissa Coleman, Kristi Toliver, and Coach Brenda Frese were talking ACC regular season title and ACC tournament title. They were the only things that they hadn't achieved in their illustrious careers at Maryland. After the regular season title was won, the focus shifted to the tournament. The tournament was all about winning it, nothing else. That's not to say the men's team's ACC tournament win wasn't meaningful but after the Friday win over Wake Forest, the goal was pretty much achieved; most people thought that win was enough to get the Terps in to the NCAA tournament, which was basically what they were playing for. The rest of the tournament was basically playing with house money. And in retrospect, with how mediocre the team was the rest of the season, that ACC tournament is now viewed as an amazing three day run, but also a fluke, outlier three day run. The women's ACC tournament run will never be forgotten as the perfect cap to the best ACC season in Frese's tenure. And no matter what happens in the next few weeks, this season will be viewed as a shining success because of how good the team was in the regular season and in Greensboro. Edge - 2009 Women.

Superstar Performance - Oh, this one is a goody. Marissa Coleman vs. John Gilchrist. Both won ACC tournament MVP. Both carried their teams on Saturday and Sunday. We all know what Coleman did; a fairly quiet Friday before scoring the go-ahead bucket against Wake Forest late in the game. She ended up with 12 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, and 3 blocks. On Saturday she had a game-high 29 points on 9/13 shooting to go along with 7 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks. And then was the historic performance on Sunday. 28 points, 15 rebounds, 6 assists, and a steal, including the go-ahead three pointer in overtime. That's a tall order to match but Gilchrist may have done it. On Friday, he had 16 points, 6 assists, and 5 rebounds and made the game-winning free throw with 3.7 seconds to go. On Saturday, he scored a career-high 30 points, 23 of them in the second half, on 11/13 shooting with five three pointers, to go along with 7 assists and 4 rebounds. On Sunday, he had 26 points on 10/20 shooting, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists and his driving layup and-one to tie the game at 77 with 20.3 seconds to go and force overtime is an iconic play in the history of Maryland basketball. This is an extremely tough choice. You can see how both not only scored a ton of points but how both completely filled up the stat sheet. I'm giving the slightest of edges to Gilchrist because he led the team to two ridiculous comebacks; the one on Saturday against N.C. State and the 12 point comeback with 5 minutes to go on Sunday against Duke. I can't believe I'm shunning Coleman here but... Edge - 2004 Men

Championship Game Vs. Duke - Here's another great one, but this too isn't close. You all know how much I loved the women's team's victory over Duke. It is easily the best game I've ever been a part of at WMUC Sports. The first half was a back-and-forth war before the Terps jumped out to a 10 point lead midway through the second half. But up 10 with 6 minutes to go, the Terps couldn't hold on as the Blue Devils closed out regulation on a 6-0 run in the final 1:18, capped by Chante Black's putback as time expired to force overtime. The Blue Devils jumped out to their first lead since the first half in overtime, but Coleman's three about midway through the period gave the Terps a lead they would not relinquish. Kim Rodgers hit two clutch free throws with under 15 seconds to go to make it 92-89 before Abby Waner's game tying three went begging and the Terps had their title. It was an absolutely amazing game that was probably the best of the year in women's college basketball and one of the best ACC title games in the history of the conference...and it completely and utterly paled in comparison to the 2004 men's title game against Duke. Here's why. First of all, the Terps were huge underdogs. Duke was 27-5 and # 5 in the nation and Maryland was just 19-11 and # 21. It was 1 seed versus 6. Not only that, the Dukies had swept the Terps in the regular season, winning 68-60 in College Park and then thumping them 86-63 in Durham as the Cameron Crazies chanted "Not Our Rivals!" Not only THAT, the Blue Devils were riding a 17 game winning streak in the ACC tournament, having won 5 straight ACC tournament titles. So those were the stakes going in. Duke's senior leader Chris Duhon slid in to a camera in the first half and was taken off the court with a leg injury. In his absence, the Terps went up a dozen in the first half. Then Duhon came back and so did Duke. An 11-2 run brought the Blue Devils within 2 but the Terps would lead 38-36 at half. The lead wouldn't last long. In the first minute of the second half, Daniel Ewing buried a three to give the Dukies their first lead at 41-40. They not only wouldn't relinquish it right back, they expanded it to 12 with 4:52 to go on a driving Duhon layup that looked to be a dagger that sealed up Duke's 6th straight ACC title. Not so fast. The Terps closed out regulation with a 15-3 run over the final 3:14 to force overtime, capped by Gilchrist's driving layup and-1 that fouled out Duke's star center Shelden Williams. After J.J. Redick missed a wide open three that would've won it for Duke in regulation, In overtime, Gilchrist buried a stepback jumper that was answered by a Duhon three to tie it at 82. From there though, the Blue Devils went cold as Daniel Ewing missed a couple of huge three pointers that would have tied it or taken the lead the Terps buried their free throws to coast to the 95-87 victory. Add in the infamous "Duke Crying Kid" and you've got the cherry on top for Terps fans. This game was the 7th best game in 2004 according to ESPN for a reason. Edge - 2004 Men

So there you have it. As amazing as the women's basketball team's ACC championship was, it just doesn't measure up to the magical weekend the men had in 2004, but it's very, very close. You can't go wrong with either title game or either superstar performance or even either weekend as a whole, but it's this man's judgment that the men's team's 2004 run was a bit more impressive, special, and amazing than this year's women's team. Boy, were both fun, though.

Anyway, returning to the present, it is now T-minus one hour until the NCAA Women's Basketball Selection Show. There is a small chance I will liveblog the selection show. If nothing else, I will be back to break down the Terps' draw later tonight. Enjoy Selection Monday!