GAMEDAY: NCAA Tournament Round 2 - (9) Utah

After the bad omen I gave you in my last post (# 4), want a good omen for Maryland's chances tonight?

Look at tonight's opponent. Now, remember the last time the Terps faced them.

Feeling better yet?

Yep, it was the Elite Eight in the 2006 NCAA tournament down in Albuquerque. A stomach virus had just struck the Maryland locker room and they had just been dragged to overtime by a gritty, underdog Utah team that had battled back from double digit margins in their first two tournament games, barely escaped a Cinderella Boston College team in the Sweet 16, and then erased a 9 point deficit to the Terps with 10 and a half to go to nearly win it in regulation before Shona Thorburn couldn't hit both free throws to give the Utes the lead with 7.8 seconds to play.

But what's the saying again? Oh yeah, "overtime is our time."

The Terps dominated OT, with Laura Harper scoring the first four points and then closing out the extra period on an 8-0 run to win 75-65 and advance to their first Final Four since 1989. Kristi Toliver, despite being struck with the flu the night before, scored a game-high 28 to lead the Terps. It's this program's version of the "Flu Game" as the Toliver/Michael Jordan parallels continue. It was a much less memorable (in terms of individual performance) night for Marissa Coleman, as she had just 4 points on 1/10 shooting, but she did grab 11 rebounds (Editor's Note: Isn't it amazing how Coleman always, ALWAYS seems to find a way to contribute in other ways when she's not scoring? Even as a freshman she did this. Absolutely incredible.) All in all, it was a gutty team effort from a special group of players that would go on to win the program's first and only National Championship a week later in Boston.

Now the year is 2009. Utah is the opponent not in the final 8 but in the final 32. And this time it's not in Albuquerque, it's in College Park, on Maryland's home floor.

The Utes, however, may be just as formidable as they were in 06.

They were 27-7 that year and a # 5 seed in the NCAA tournament. This year, they're 23-9 and a 9 seed. So on paper, they look a little bit worse. However, they are once again Mountain West conference champions, they are once again coached by Elaine Elliott, and they are coming off perhaps their best game of the season in which they posted one of the best defensive efforts in women's college basketball this season.

Everyone, myself included, predicted the Villanova/Utah first round game to end in the 40's or 50's. I had the Wildcats winning that game due to their superstar, Laura Kurz, and the mindset that Harry Perretta would outcoach Elliott. Whoops. Kurz had just 11 and went 0-for-7 from three point range. The Wildcats as a team shot 11-for-58, or 19 percent, on the game and were just 4-for-29 from three point range (14 percent.) The 30 points they scored was the third-lowest in the history of the tournament and the lowest by a non-16 seed in the history of the tournament. Utah literally doubled them up and had almost as many points at halftime, 26, as their opponents would score in the entire game.

That's a pretty good defensive effort.

With all due respect to Kurz, a Naismith Trophy finalist, and the Wildcats, the Terps present a much bigger challenge defensively for the Utes. The Terps have not one but two superstars in Coleman and Toliver and an excellent supporting cast in Lynetta Kizer, Dee Liles, Marah Strickland, and everyone else. They average 79.8 points per game, or 50 more than Villanova put up on Sunday. Slowing them down will be difficult. Beating them will be even tougher.

But definitely not impossible.

After the job that the 6'0 Kalee Whipple did on Kurz, it would not be a shock to see Elliott match her up on Coleman and see if she can frustrate her in the same manner. With the way Coleman can be careless with the basketball (103 turnovers on the season, or 3.12 a game), she'll have to be extra careful or Whipple and her 69 steals (or 2.16 per game) could take advantage. Oh and Whipple can get it done on the offensive end as well, averaging 16.8 points per game with a game-high 15 against Villanova on Sunday, dishing out 99 assists on the season, and grabbing 6.2 rebounds per contest.

She's pretty good, but Morgan Warburton is just as good, and might be even better.

Warburton, the preseason Mountain West Player of the Year, two time all-conference player, and 1,000 point scorer (20th in Utah's history), has only led her team in points (18.6 per game), assists (112 on the year), and is third in rebounds (6.3 per game) this season. She had 14 against the Wildcats, so her and Whipple nearly outscored their opponents all by themselves. These two are clearly the leaders of the Utah band. Both can light it up from three, shooting above 37% from the year, and as we all know, the three point shot can be the great equalizer in college hoops, especially women's. But in this game, the Utes probably won't be looking to outbomb the Terps from three; they'll be looking to hang with them, as Maryland is the top three point shooting team in the country, thanks mostly to Toliver, Coleman, and Strickland.

Warburton's a 5'11 guard, so she could be the perfect match for Toliver, but the thinking here is that Brenda Frese might stick the bigger (6'0) Marah Strickland on her and allow Toliver to focus more on dominating on the offensive end like she did on Sunday and like she did four years ago as a freshman in the Elite Eight against the Utes. Regardless of who's checking who on each side of the ball, the winner of the Toliver-Warbuton "game within the game" should go a long way in to determining tonight's outcome. Same, perhaps, with Coleman-Whipple.

There are two other big keys to tonight. The first one is literally a "big" key. Utah's two other standout players are Katie King and Halie Sawyer. King is the Utes' third double-figures scorer, averaging 11.1 per game, while Sawyer averages 7.3 a night. However, their impact is mostly felt on the boards. Each grabs more than 7 rebounds per game, with King averaging 7.1 rebounds and Sawyer 7.8. The disadvantage for them is their height, or lackthereof, as both are 6'1. That's a problem going up against the 6'4 Lynetta Kizer and the 6'1 Dee Liles (who averages 8.5 rebounds.) Combine those two with Coleman's toughness and rebounding prowess and I have to give the physical and interior edge to the Terps, which is something Elliott knows cannot be the case tonight, as she said after the loss in the regional finals four years ago that size made the difference. Granted, the Terps had Crystal Langhorne and Laura Harper back then and as good as Kizer and Liles are, they haven't ascended to the heights those two did. Bottom line: whoever controls the paint and dominates on the glass will have a huge shot at winning tonight.

The last key for tonight is tempo. This one is basic but obvious. The Terps score almost 80 points a game. Utah only allows 55 points per game. If it's a slogging, slow contest, that should keep the Utes in it and give them a chance to pull off the upset. They probably don't have the athleticism or the firepower to win a shootout. Elliott knows this and she's a good enough coach to get her team to not cave to the Terps. That's not to say that Frese will just let her team play a half court game, but it's easier to slow down tempo than it is to speed it up and the Terps are probably more comfortable in a half court game than the Utes are in a track meet. I look for Maryland to play slow if that's what Utah wants to do, wear them down inside, let Coleman and Toliver do their thing, and push the pace whenever they get the chance (off missed shots or when Utah falls asleep after a made basket.) I think this game should be close for a while before Maryland pulls away in the second half.

I'm going to be in attendance tonight for the last game at the Comcast Center for Coleman and Toliver. It should be a great one.

PREDICTION - Maryland 70, Utah 58